What's Next for Sumo?

Haru (Spring) Basho is underway in Osaka, and for the first time in years, wrestlers will not have the intimidating presence of retired yokozuna Asashoryu to worry about. With his gaping absence at the top of the ranks, it is time for someone to seize the opportunity to join Hakuho. Since March 2006, only two wrestlers not named Asashoryu or Hakuho have won a basho, and those two men, Kotoshu and Harumafuji, only have a victory apiece. Who is Asa's retirement most likely to benefit?

Hakuho: With 12 career victories, Hakuho is nearly halfway to catching Asashoryu for third on the all time list. Having just turned 25, and with no powerful challenger in sight, the only obstacles in his way would appear to be injuries and motivation. With his size and technique, he can win it all even without Asa's competitive fire, so really staying healthy is his only issue. If no one emerges to challenge him, then he will march unimpeded into the record books.

Harumafuji: Hakuho's fellow Mongolian is the current #1 ozeki. An undersized wrestler, he has to be at his very best every match to compete for each title. While he has the speed and technique to maintain his ozeki ranking, winning the two consecutive basho required for yokozuna promotion might be out of reach. That said, he's still #2 on my list of contenders.

Kotooshu: This tall, strong, Bulgarian wrestler seems to have a metabolism that prevents him from achieving the bulk around his girth necessary to withstand the big collisions at the start of matches. When stouter wrestlers get inside his defences, they often are able to use their leverage advantage for the win. If he could develop the devastating neck thrust Akebono had, then his reach advantage would be fully realized. Of all the current ozeki, he's the most likely one to make yokozuna, but at 27 it's too late for him to go down in the history books as one of the best ever.

Kaio: At 37, all that is left for this sumo stalwart to accomplish are milestones like 1000 victories overall and 100 appearances in top division tournaments. A respectable career, but yokozuna promotion is not a possibility.

Kotomitsuki: A former college star, Koto made an impressive debut in 2000, finishing second in the first top division basho in which he was healthy enough to participate. He seemed like a real yokozuna contender until he broke his jaw in 2002. Upon his return, he posted some strong finishes, but he seemed to exhibit a tentativeness in the ring as if he sought to avoid another jaw injury. While few could blame him for being gun shy, it also cost him a chance to really challenge Asashoryu and Hakuho when he was in his prime. At 34, he would have to be considered a dark horse candidate at best.

Below the ozeki ranks, there is an observable drop off in talent, and no obvious up and comer. With Asa's retirement, I'll have to start paying attention to the earlier matches again to scout for potential champions. If you have been following the lower ranks, please leave your tips for "ones to watch" in the comments section.